False prophets

I don’t know whether Michael Gove “accepts” that “indyref2 is coming”. And I don’t care! I do care that many people in Scotland assume that a new referendum is about to be delivered. A belief earnestly encouraged by SNP politicians, The National and much (most?) of the Yes commentariat. It is a false belief. And I deeply deplore the deception.

Let me state this as clearly as possible. There is at present NO good reason to suppose that a new independence referendum is in the offing. As things stand, there is no immediate prospect of a new referendum and no discernible progress being made towards a situation in which a referendum might be a realistic hope for the medium term. Let’s say a year.

Moreover, even the longer term hope of a new referendum recedes with every day that action is delayed.

Worse still, even the referendum that people are being encouraged to believe is imminent is unlikely to deliver a Yes vote. It matters little what the polls say. There is no process connecting public support for independence as indicated by polling to a free and fair referendum. The Section 30 process to which we are all wedded courtesy of Nicola Sturgeon MIGHT deliver a referendum. But there is absolutely no possibility that such a referendum would be free and fair. By requesting a Section 30 order, the First Minister is inviting the British government to attach provisions and conditions which, if accepted by the Scottish Government, would make any referendum unwinnable. And, of course, if the conditions are not accepted then there is no referendum – with the Scottish Government being blamed.

None of this is arcane knowledge. Indeed, in many cases belief in an imminent referendum is maintained in the face of full awareness of all evidence to the contrary. It is a faith position. It is an irrational belief.

By evangelising this faith position SNP politicians, The National and the guilty part of the Yes commentariat are discouraging any effort to ensure a free and fair referendum by rejecting Section 30 and establishing an independent process by which the people of Scotland may exercise our right of self-determination free from British interference. Only by doing this can we hope to secure a referendum in time to save Scotland from being absorbed into a new and decidedly ugly post-Brexit British state. Only by ensuring that our referendum is entirely made and managed in Scotland can we make it free and fair.



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19 thoughts on “False prophets

  1. You can see this, I can see this, everyone awake in the YES movement can see this. Why is there no evidence that the powers that be in the SNP and the SG see this ? Even if this scenario is NOT about to play out, our leadership should be acting as if it IS about to play out – hope for the best by all means, but plan for the worst.

    Liked by 4 people

  2. I can understand and agree with what you say in respect of the obstacles which would make it difficult to gain independence via section 30. So the process of achieving a 2nd referendum by requesting ‘permission’ via section30 is flawed. You say that establishing an independent process free of interference from the British state is the only way to go. Please set out in detail how you would go about it if you were first minister to ensure that the newly independent country of Scotland would be accepted and recognised as such not just by the UK but globally so that we can trade and make treaties with other countries as equal participants.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. How often?

      Manifesto for Independence

      ● Renounce Section 30 process
      ● Assert competence of Scottish Parliament in constitutional matters
      ● Recall MPs to join with MSPs in a National Convention
      ● Propose dissolution of Union subject to referendum
      ● Call referendum entirely made and managed in Scotland

      #NoSection30 #ScottishUDI #UnionNoMore

      Liked by 3 people

    2. At the very least there would need to be neutral and respected international observers overseeing the process. Otherwise WM would just treat it as another opinion poll, assuming they’d even allow it to go ahead …

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      1. Colonised mind! Why are you fretting about what the British think and do? Are they more important than the people of Scotland? Westminster has no say in the matter. When you know that the way you know your own name, you will have decolonised your mind.

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      2. Just look back to the history of Irish independence, in the last resort London will use force, how many battalions does Holyrood have? And more to the point, would you want it to come to that? Could it ever be justified unless things get far far worse for Scotland?

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  3. We must ask for international observers at the next referendum to ensure no interference by the British state. The colonial power should never be involved. I know, I know……

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    1. I keep hearing this. And it is just daft. International observers are not police. They have no powers. They can’t “ensure” anything. All they do is observe – the clue is in the name – and report afterwards. If their report is damning of the No side, the British government will simply reject it. If there is a Yes vote and the observers are even slightly critical of anything then the British government will use that as an excuse to overturn the result.

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  4. Scotland is being held hostage by Westminster and we must do everything to escape its malign clutches. To hell with Section 30 and permission. Who ever asked permission from their captors to escape. Sheesh!

    What I can’t get my head around though is that Scotland is also being prevented from leaving the UK by the people we voted for to take us out of it – the SNP. They are oh so polite towards the inept imbeciles and corrupt fascists trying to incorporate our country into England. What is that all about?

    They should deliver what they say they stand for or get out of the way. Now!

    Liked by 3 people

    1. How? Yes I know asking ‘permission’ isn’t the preferred way so what is the alternative? If you were FM what route would you take? Explain please.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Go for it. Don’t ask. Convene a National Assembly of MSPs and MPs if continually blocked by Westminster.

        Independence is taken not granted. No other country under the boot of the UK asked to leave; they left.

        Liked by 1 person

  5. We should be having our own made in Scotland referendum in November , before we leave the EU. Obviously that isn’t happening.

    So we have to wait until May 2021 , 5 months after Brexit and the power grab. An SNP majority in May should immediately trigger negotiations to dissolve the union. Providing the SNP make it clear that is their intention before the election.

    The shape of independence is something that can be ironed out during the 2 year transition.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. This to provide background, not an opinion, and sorry about the length of the URL:

    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/corporate-report/2019/12/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands/documents/scotlands-right-to-choose-putting-scotlands-future-in-scotlands-hands/scotlands-right-to-choose-putting-scotlands-future-in-scotlands-hands/govscot%3Adocument/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands.pdf?forceDownload=true

    The amendment being sought to the Scotland Act is this:

    “Paragraph 1 does not reserve a referendum on the independence of Scotland from the
    rest of the United Kingdom.”

    and it can be done either way:

    “This amendment could be made in either an Order in Council under section 30 of the
    Scotland Act, as was done for the 2014 referendum, or by an Act of the UK Parliament.”

    An Act could be an emergency Act in days as has been done. Or to get an Order IN Council (not OF):

    “Orders in Council are Orders that have been approved at a meeting of the Privy Council personally by The Queen. … Statutory Orders are made under any of the numerous powers contained in Acts of Parliament which give Her Majesty a power to make Orders. …”

    as per the ostensible reason for a Section 30 = in case something hasn’t been thought of.

    So the ScotParl could have “authorisation” within a couple of days at most, and if emergency provisional legislation was all the way up past stage 3 waiting Royal Assent, it’s also possible an S30 could waive the usual 28 days the UK Gov has to object to ScotLeg. Which means a Ref could be held within say, 3 months of an urgent need / decision / agreement – by BoJo et al. Even in December this year.

    The question therefore could become – what could cause such a panic in the UK Gov’s breastie?

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    1. I am aware of this procedure. It is one of the ways that things can go. But, as you note, something must cause it to happen. There is less than no reason to believe that this trigger might be found anywhere in the Scottish Government’s current approach to the constitutional issue. It is my contention that such a response can only be triggered by bold decisive action. The SNP adopting a Manifesto for Independence then going on to win a landslide in the 2021 election might be enough in itself. If not, then the implementation of the process outlined in the Manifesto for Independence could. And if it doesn’t, then that process is all we’ll have and we will just have to persevere with it.

      People ask for a ‘detailed’ plan of action. That’s kinda stupid. The more detailed a plan, the less flexibility it allows. We have to be able to respond to developments as they occur.

      One further point. If it gets to the stage that the British government is offering the ‘solution’ to which you refer, this may be taken as sign that they realise they are beaten and are seeking to save face even if they can’t save the Union. It may be in our interests to reject such an offer and proceed with #ScottishUDI. Let it never be said that our independence was GIVEN to us by the British.

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  7. “Assert competence of Scottish Parliament in constitutional matters”

    What happens if the Forward as One court case is lost and the “assertion” therefore becomes definitively illegal?

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    1. There is no route to independence which will not be declared ‘illegal’ by the British state. Stop thinking ‘legal’. Concentrate on ensuring that the process is democratic. That is something we can control. We have no way to influence what the British choose to call ‘illegal’. So don’t waste resources on the effort.

      Like

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